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Forecasting in Economics and Business (ECOM20002)

Undergraduate level 2Points: 12.5On Campus (Parkville)

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Overview

Year of offer2017
Subject levelUndergraduate Level 2
Subject codeECOM20002
Campus
Parkville
Availability
Semester 1
FeesSubject EFTSL, Level, Discipline & Census Date

This subject is an introduction to single equation forecasting methods and their applications to business, finance, economics and marketing. Special emphasis will be given to core forecasting techniques with the widest applicability. Attention will be paid to modelling and forecasting trends and cycles with topics including forecasting regression models, leading indicators, exponential smoothing methods, ARIMA models, pooling forecast procedures and forecast evaluation. The subject is applications-orientated.

Intended learning outcomes

On successful completion of this subject students should be able to:

  • Explain the main considerations of a successful forecasting model
  • Model and forecast trends
  • Model and forecast seasonality
  • Characterise, model and forecast cycles using moving average (MA), autoregressive (AR), and autoregressive moving average models (ARMA)
  • Define unit root processes, stochastic trends and model using autoregressive, integrated, moving average processes (ARIMA)
  • Model empirical processes using software

Generic skills

  • High level of development: problem solving; statistical reasoning; interpretation and analysis; critical thinking; synthesis of data and other information; evaluation of data and other information; use of computer software; accessing data and other information from a range of sources.

  • Moderate level of development: oral communication; team work; application of theory to practice; receptiveness to alternative ideas.

  • Some level of development: written communication; collaborative learning.

Eligibility and requirements

Prerequisites

The following subject or equivalent:

Code Name Teaching period Credit Points
ECON10005 Quantitative Methods 1
Semester 1
Semester 2
12.5

Corequisites

None

Non-allowed subjects

None

Recommended background knowledge

Please refer to Prerequisites and Corequisites.

Core participation requirements

The University of Melbourne is committed to providing students with reasonable adjustments to assessment and participation under the Disability Standards for Education (2005), and the Assessment and Results Policy (MPF1326). Students are expected to meet the core participation requirements for their course. These can be viewed under Entry and Participation Requirements for the course outlines in the Handbook.

Further details on how to seek academic adjustments can be found on the Student Equity and Disability Support website: http://services.unimelb.edu.au/student-equity/home

Assessment

Description

  • A 2-hour examination (70%)
  • Class assignments totalling not more than 3000 words (30%)
  • To pass this subject students must pass the end of semester examination.

Dates & times

  • Semester 1
    Principal coordinatorKian Ong
    Mode of deliveryOn Campus — Parkville
    Contact hoursOne 2-hour lecture and a 1-hour tutorial/practice class per week
    Total time commitment170 hours
    Teaching period27 February 2017 to 28 May 2017
    Last self-enrol date10 March 2017
    Census date31 March 2017
    Last date to withdraw without fail 5 May 2017
    Assessment period ends23 June 2017

    Semester 1 contact information

Time commitment details

170 hours

Further information

  • Texts

    Prescribed texts

    You will be advised of prescribed texts by your lecturer.

  • Breadth options
  • Available through the Community Access Program

    About the Community Access Program (CAP)

    This subject is available through the Community Access Program (also called Single Subject Studies) which allows you to enrol in single subjects offered by the University of Melbourne, without the commitment required to complete a whole degree.

    Entry requirements including prerequisites may apply. Please refer to the CAP applications page for further information.

  • Available to Study Abroad and Exchange students

    This subject is available to students studying at the University from overseas institutions on exchange and study abroad.

Last updated: 17 January 2019