|Year of offer||2017|
|Subject level||Undergraduate Level 2|
|Fees||Subject EFTSL, Level, Discipline & Census Date|
This subject is an introduction to single equation forecasting methods and their applications to business, finance, economics and marketing. Special emphasis will be given to core forecasting techniques with the widest applicability. Attention will be paid to modelling and forecasting trends and cycles with topics including forecasting regression models, leading indicators, exponential smoothing methods, ARIMA models, pooling forecast procedures and forecast evaluation. The subject is applications-orientated.
Intended learning outcomes
On successful completion of this subject students should be able to:
- Explain the main considerations of a successful forecasting model
- Model and forecast trends
- Model and forecast seasonality
- Characterise, model and forecast cycles using moving average (MA), autoregressive (AR), and autoregressive moving average models (ARMA)
- Define unit root processes, stochastic trends and model using autoregressive, integrated, moving average processes (ARIMA)
- Model empirical processes using software
High level of development: problem solving; statistical reasoning; interpretation and analysis; critical thinking; synthesis of data and other information; evaluation of data and other information; use of computer software; accessing data and other information from a range of sources.
Moderate level of development: oral communication; team work; application of theory to practice; receptiveness to alternative ideas.
Some level of development: written communication; collaborative learning.
Eligibility and requirements
The following subject or equivalent:
|Code||Name||Teaching period||Credit Points|
|ECON10005||Quantitative Methods 1||
Recommended background knowledge
Please refer to Prerequisites and Corequisites.
Core participation requirements
The University of Melbourne is committed to providing students with reasonable adjustments to assessment and participation under the Disability Standards for Education (2005), and the Assessment and Results Policy (MPF1326). Students are expected to meet the core participation requirements for their course. These can be viewed under Entry and Participation Requirements for the course outlines in the Handbook.
Further details on how to seek academic adjustments can be found on the Student Equity and Disability Support website: http://services.unimelb.edu.au/student-equity/home
- A 2-hour examination (70%)
- Class assignments totalling not more than 3000 words (30%)
- To pass this subject students must pass the end of semester examination.
Dates & times
- Semester 1
Principal coordinator Kian Ong Mode of delivery On Campus — Parkville Contact hours One 2-hour lecture and a 1-hour tutorial/practice class per week Total time commitment 170 hours Teaching period 27 February 2017 to 28 May 2017 Last self-enrol date 10 March 2017 Census date 31 March 2017 Last date to withdraw without fail 5 May 2017 Assessment period ends 23 June 2017
Semester 1 contact information
Time commitment details
You will be advised of prescribed texts by your lecturer.
- Related Handbook entries
This subject contributes to the following:
Type Name Course Master of Applied Econometrics
- Breadth options
- Available through the Community Access Program
About the Community Access Program (CAP)
This subject is available through the Community Access Program (also called Single Subject Studies) which allows you to enrol in single subjects offered by the University of Melbourne, without the commitment required to complete a whole degree.
Entry requirements including prerequisites may apply. Please refer to the CAP applications page for further information.
- Available to Study Abroad and Exchange students
This subject is available to students studying at the University from overseas institutions on exchange and study abroad.