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Topics include survival models concepts; estimation procedures for lifetime distributions; multiple state models; multiple decrements; binomial model of mortality; actuarial applications of Markov processes; exact and census methods for estimating transition intensities based on age.
Intended learning outcomes
On successful completion of this subject a student should be able to:
- Explain the concept of survival models;
- Describe estimation procedures for lifetime distributions;
- Define a Markov process, and apply Markov models in actuarial problems;
- Describe statistical models of transfer between multiple states, including processes with single or multiple decrements, and derive relationships between probabilities of transfer and transition intensities;
- Derive maximum likelihood estimators for the transition intensities in models of transfers between states with piecewise constant transition intensities;
- Describe the Binomial model of mortality, derive a maximum likelihood estimator for the probability of death and compare the Binomial model with the multiple state models;
- Describe how to estimate transition intensities depending on age, exactly or using the census approximation.
High level of development:
- Written communication;
- Problem solving;
- Statistical reasoning;
- Application of theory to practice;
- Synthesis of data and other information.
Last updated: 29 July 2022