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Forecasting in Economics and Business (ECOM20002)
Undergraduate level 2Points: 12.5On Campus (Parkville)
About this subject
- Overview
- Eligibility and requirements
- Assessment
- Dates and times
- Further information
- Timetable(opens in new window)
Contact information
Semester 1
Overview
Availability | Semester 1 |
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Fees | Look up fees |
This subject is an introduction to single equation forecasting methods and their applications to business, finance, economics and marketing. Special emphasis will be given to core forecasting techniques with the widest applicability. Attention will be paid to modelling and forecasting trends and cycles. Topics may include forecasting regression models, leading indicators, exponential smoothing methods, ARIMA models, pooling forecast procedures and forecast evaluation. The subject is applications-orientated.
Students are required to attend a minimum of 80% of classes and tutorials in order to pass this subject and regular class participation is expected.
Intended learning outcomes
On successful completion of this subject students should be able to:
- Explain the main considerations of a successful forecasting model
- Model and forecast trends
- Model and forecast seasonality
- Characterise, model and forecast cycles using moving average (MA), autoregressive (AR), and autoregressive moving average models (ARMA)
- Define unit root processes, stochastic trends and model using autoregressive, integrated, moving average processes (ARIMA)
- Model empirical processes using software
Generic skills
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High level of development: problem solving; statistical reasoning; interpretation and analysis; critical thinking; synthesis of data and other information; evaluation of data and other information; use of computer software; accessing data and other information from a range of sources.
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Moderate level of development: oral communication; team work; application of theory to practice; receptiveness to alternative ideas.
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Some level of development: written communication; collaborative learning.
Last updated: 22 March 2024
Eligibility and requirements
Prerequisites
The following subject or equivalent:
Code | Name | Teaching period | Credit Points |
---|---|---|---|
ECON10005 | Quantitative Methods 1 |
Semester 1 (On Campus - Parkville)
Semester 2 (On Campus - Parkville)
|
12.5 |
Corequisites
None
Non-allowed subjects
None
Recommended background knowledge
Please refer to Prerequisites and Corequisites.
Inherent requirements (core participation requirements)
The University of Melbourne is committed to providing students with reasonable adjustments to assessment and participation under the Disability Standards for Education (2005), and the Assessment and Results Policy (MPF1326). Students are expected to meet the core participation requirements for their course. These can be viewed under Entry and Participation Requirements for the course outlines in the Handbook.
Further details on how to seek academic adjustments can be found on the Student Equity and Disability Support website: http://services.unimelb.edu.au/student-equity/home
Last updated: 22 March 2024
Assessment
Additional details
- A 2-hour examination (70%)
- Class assignments totalling not more than 3000 words (30%)
- To pass this subject students must pass the end of semester examination.
Last updated: 22 March 2024
Dates & times
- Semester 1
Principal coordinator Jonathan Thong Mode of delivery On Campus (Parkville) Contact hours One 2-hour lecture and a 1-hour tutorial/practice class per week Total time commitment 170 hours Teaching period 4 March 2019 to 2 June 2019 Last self-enrol date 15 March 2019 Census date 31 March 2019 Last date to withdraw without fail 10 May 2019 Assessment period ends 28 June 2019 Semester 1 contact information
Time commitment details
170 hours
Last updated: 22 March 2024
Further information
- Texts
Prescribed texts
You will be advised of prescribed texts by your lecturer.
- Related Handbook entries
This subject contributes to the following:
Type Name Course Master of Applied Econometrics - Breadth options
This subject is available as breadth in the following courses:
- Available through the Community Access Program
About the Community Access Program (CAP)
This subject is available through the Community Access Program (also called Single Subject Studies) which allows you to enrol in single subjects offered by the University of Melbourne, without the commitment required to complete a whole degree.
Entry requirements including prerequisites may apply. Please refer to the CAP applications page for further information.
- Available to Study Abroad and/or Study Exchange Students
This subject is available to students studying at the University from eligible overseas institutions on exchange and study abroad. Students are required to satisfy any listed requirements, such as pre- and co-requisites, for enrolment in the subject.
Last updated: 22 March 2024