Modelling Species Distributions & Niches (EVSC90026)

This subject focuses on statistical models of the distribution of species and ecophysiological models of species niches. These two areas of environmental modelling have grown substantially in the last decade or two, and have become core parts of ecology. They are closely related, but they differ philosophically and practically. They are both used for understanding and predicting the distributions of species. The statistical models (also known as habitat suitability models, bioclimatic envelopes or ecological niche models) use observed geographical distributions to characterise relationships between a species and its environment and can be considered ‘top-down’ in approach. Ecophysiological (or mechanistic) models take a ‘bottom-up’ approach by characterising the physiological processes influencing a species’ distribution and integrate models of microclimates, energy balance, heat balance, and water balance.

You will learn about both approaches from lecturers who are world experts in these topics. The subject will help you to understand the merits and drawbacks of the two approaches to species modelling and equip you with important skills that are in high demand in ecology and conservation. The subject includes the following topics: compilation, processing and management of data, fitting models by statistical estimation and empirical measurement, spatial prediction of distributions (mapping), and model evaluation.