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Topics include survival models concepts; estimation procedures for lifetime distributions; multiple state models; binomial model of mortality; actuarial applications of Markov processes.
Intended learning outcomes
- Explain the concept of survival model;
- Describe estimation procedures for lifetime distributions;
- Define a Markov process, and apply Markov models in actuarial problems;
- Describe models of transfer between multiple states, including processes with single or multiple decrements, and derive relationships between probabilities of transfer and transition intensities;
- Derive maximum likelihood estimators for the transition intensities in models of transfers between states with piecewise constant transition intensities;
- Describe the binomial model of mortality, a maximum likelihood estimator for the probability of death and compare the binomial model with the multiple state models;
- Apply pre-requisite mathematical and statistical concepts to the solution of problems on the above topics.
High level of development: written communication; problem solving; statistical reasoning; application of theory to practice; synthesis of data and other information.
Last updated: 22 January 2022