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Topics include exact and census methods for estimating transition intensities based on age; goodness of fit and smoothness of graduated estimates versus crude estimates; actuarial modelling; general principles of stochastic processes; Markov chains in actuarial work.
Intended learning outcomes
- Describe the principles of actuarial modelling
- Describe the general principles of stochastic processes, and their classification into different types
- Define and apply a Markov chain
- Describe how to estimate transition intensities depending on age, exactly or using the census approximation
- Describe how to test crude estimates for consistency with a standard table or a set of graduated estimates, and describe the process of graduation
- Apply pre-requisite mathematical and statistical concepts to the solution of problems on the above topics
High level of development: written communication; problem solving; statistical reasoning; application of theory to practice; synthesis of data and other information.
Last updated: 16 June 2020