Handbook home
Forecasting in Economics and Business (ECOM90024)
Graduate courseworkPoints: 12.5On Campus (Parkville)
For information about the University’s phased return to campus and in-person activity in Winter and Semester 2, please refer to the on-campus subjects page.
About this subject
- Overview
- Eligibility and requirements
- Assessment
- Dates and times
- Further information
- Timetable(opens in new window)
Contact information
Semester 1
Please refer to the LMS for up-to-date subject information, including assessment and participation requirements, for subjects being offered in 2020.
Overview
Availability | Semester 1 |
---|---|
Fees | Look up fees |
This subject focuses on time series forecasting methods and their applications to business, finance, economics and marketing. Special emphasis will be given to core forecasting techniques with the widest applicability. Attention will be paid to modelling and forecasting trends and cycles. Topics may include forecasting regression models, leading indicators, exponential smoothing methods, ARIMA models, pooled forecast procedures and forecast evaluation. The subject is applications-orientated.
Intended learning outcomes
- Explain the main considerations involved in developing a successful forecasting model.
- Implement and evaluate models for forecasting trends and seasonality.
- Characterise, model and forecast cycles using moving average (MA), autoregressive (AR), and autoregressive moving average models (ARMA) for both stationary and non-stationary time series.
- Implement and interpret point, interval, density and probability forecasts.
- Apply common techniques to evaluate forecast performance and to combine forecasts from different models.
- Demonstrate proficiency in time series data handling and modelling using statistical software.
Generic skills
- High level of development: problem solving; statistical reasoning; interpretation and analysis; critical thinking; synthesis of data and other information; evaluation of data and other information; use of computer software; accessing data and other information from a range of sources.
- Moderate level of development: oral communication; team work; application of theory to practice; receptiveness to alternative ideas.
- Some level of development: written communication; collaborative learning.
Last updated: 3 November 2022
Eligibility and requirements
Prerequisites
Admission to the Master of Applied Econometrics.
Corequisites
None
Non-allowed subjects
None
Inherent requirements (core participation requirements)
The University of Melbourne is committed to providing students with reasonable adjustments to assessment and participation under the Disability Standards for Education (2005), and the Assessment and Results Policy (MPF1326). Students are expected to meet the core participation requirements for their course. These can be viewed under Entry and Participation Requirements for the course outlines in the Handbook.
Further details on how to seek academic adjustments can be found on the Student Equity and Disability Support website: http://services.unimelb.edu.au/student-equity/home
Last updated: 3 November 2022
Assessment
Due to the impact of COVID-19, assessment may differ from that published in the Handbook. Students are reminded to check the subject assessment requirements published in the subject outline on the LMS
Description | Timing | Percentage |
---|---|---|
Individual Assignment 1
| Week 6 | 10% |
Individual Assignment 2
| Week 9 | 10% |
Individual Assignment 3
| Week 12 | 10% |
End of Semester Exam
| During the examination period | 70% |
Last updated: 3 November 2022
Dates & times
- Semester 1
Coordinator Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo Mode of delivery On Campus (Parkville) Contact hours 1 x two-hour lecture and 1 x one-hour tutorial/practice class per week Total time commitment 170 hours Teaching period 2 March 2020 to 7 June 2020 Last self-enrol date 13 March 2020 Census date 30 April 2020 Last date to withdraw without fail 5 June 2020 Assessment period ends 3 July 2020 Semester 1 contact information
Last updated: 3 November 2022
Further information
- Texts
Prescribed texts
There are no specifically prescribed or recommended texts for this subject.
Last updated: 3 November 2022