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Forecasting in Economics and Business (ECOM90024)
Graduate courseworkPoints: 12.5On Campus (Parkville)
About this subject
- Overview
- Eligibility and requirements
- Assessment
- Dates and times
- Further information
- Timetable (login required)(opens in new window)
Contact information
Semester 1
Jonathan Thong: jonathan.thong@unimelb.edu.au
Overview
Availability | Semester 1 |
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Fees | Look up fees |
This subject focuses on time series forecasting methods and their applications to business, finance, economics and marketing. Special emphasis will be given to core forecasting techniques with the widest applicability. Attention will be paid to modelling and forecasting trends and cycles. Topics may include forecasting regression models, leading indicators, exponential smoothing methods, ARIMA models, pooled forecast procedures and forecast evaluation. The subject is applications-orientated.
Intended learning outcomes
On successful completion of this subject students should be able to:
- Explain the main considerations involved in developing a successful forecasting model.
- Implement and evaluate models for forecasting trends and seasonality.
- Characterise, model and forecast cycles using moving average (MA), autoregressive (AR), and autoregressive moving average models (ARMA) for both stationary and non-stationary time series.
- Implement and interpret point, interval, density and probability forecasts.
- Apply common techniques to evaluate forecast performance and to combine forecasts from different models.
- Demonstrate proficiency in time series data handling and modelling using statistical software.
Generic skills
- High level of development: problem solving; statistical reasoning; interpretation and analysis; critical thinking; synthesis of data and other information; evaluation of data and other information; use of computer software; accessing data and other information from a range of sources.
- Moderate level of development: oral communication; team work; application of theory to practice; receptiveness to alternative ideas.
- Some level of development: written communication; collaborative learning.
Last updated: 13 February 2024
Eligibility and requirements
Prerequisites
Admission into one of:
- MC-AEMTRCS Master of Applied Econometrics
- MC-AECOENH Master of Applied Econometrics (Enhanced)
Corequisites
None
Non-allowed subjects
None
Inherent requirements (core participation requirements)
The University of Melbourne is committed to providing students with reasonable adjustments to assessment and participation under the Disability Standards for Education (2005), and the Assessment and Results Policy (MPF1326). Students are expected to meet the core participation requirements for their course. These can be viewed under Entry and Participation Requirements for the course outlines in the Handbook.
Further details on how to seek academic adjustments can be found on the Student Equity and Disability Support website: http://services.unimelb.edu.au/student-equity/home
Last updated: 13 February 2024
Assessment
Description | Timing | Percentage |
---|---|---|
Individual Assignment 1
| Week 6 | 10% |
Individual Assignment 2
| Week 9 | 10% |
Individual Assignment 3
| Week 12 | 10% |
End of Semester Exam
| During the examination period | 70% |
Last updated: 13 February 2024
Dates & times
- Semester 1
Principal coordinator Jonathan Thong Mode of delivery On Campus (Parkville) Contact hours 1 x 2 hour recorded lecture, 1 hour live online tutorial. Total time commitment 170 hours Teaching period 26 February 2024 to 26 May 2024 Last self-enrol date 8 March 2024 Census date 3 April 2024 Last date to withdraw without fail 3 May 2024 Assessment period ends 21 June 2024 Semester 1 contact information
Jonathan Thong: jonathan.thong@unimelb.edu.au
What do these dates mean
Visit this webpage to find out about these key dates, including how they impact on:
- Your tuition fees, academic transcript and statements.
- And for Commonwealth Supported students, your:
- Student Learning Entitlement. This applies to all students enrolled in a Commonwealth Supported Place (CSP).
Subjects withdrawn after the census date (including up to the ‘last day to withdraw without fail’) count toward the Student Learning Entitlement.
Last updated: 13 February 2024
Further information
- Texts
Prescribed texts
There are no specifically prescribed or recommended texts for this subject.
Last updated: 13 February 2024